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  There are two modelling spreadsheets used around the UK in the tourism industry.
  The top-down Cambridge model, relatively inaccurate (+/-10% per year) so is not used for comparative purposes, i.e. year on year.
  The bottom-up STEAM model, quite accurate and open to improvement with better ground-up input and can be used for year on year comparisons.
  How do I know? I read this...
  
  http://www.insights.org.uk/articleitem.aspx?title=Measuring+the+Local+Impact+of+Tourism+%E2%80%93+The+Big+Issue+for+the+Next+Five+Years&type=7

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