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    I disagree Reg. I am convinced that the chances in the Monty Hall problem change when the first goat is revealed and have run computer simulations and drawn probability-space diagrams to prove it.

    In this case above I think swapping makes no difference. For example IF you opened YOUR first choice envelope rather than the other and found the 12 would you 'swap'. The 'fact' that the average is 15 suggests you should BUT do we take into account that you forgo your original choice of 12?

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