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interesting piece by norman tebbit in the telegraph
The Eastleigh by-election was bound to have some bad news for the Tories, whatever happened. Even had they taken the seat from the Lib Dems, which would have been a triumph for David Cameron, the Lib Dems would have put the blame on Clegg and the anti-coalitionists might well have forced him out of the leadership with the strong probability that the coalition would have collapsed.
In fact, that was never on the cards. The Lib Dems were deeply dug in and well organised in Eastleigh, whereas the Tory grassroots had shrivelled in the climate of contempt in which they are regarded by the Tory leadership.
However, to be pushed into third place behind the party of nutcases, fruit cakes and closet racists, as David Cameron ill-advisedly described its supporters, is a humiliating defeat. Even worse for him, it has again increased the credibility of Ukip ahead of this year's local elections and next years European election. There was a real sting in the throwaway line of Neil Farage, who blamed the result onto the Conservatives for splitting the anti-Lib Dem vote.
As for poor Ed Miliband, the result must raise the question of why with the coalition in so many problems, Labour performed so poorly. I would like to believe that the choice of the revolting O'Farrell turned off a lot of decent potential Labour voters, but it may also be that even many Labour voters regard a vote for Ukip as the best way to kick the Coalition.