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The last time Dover bucked the trend was in 1974 when Peter Rees (Conservative) held on to the seat in both elections that year.
Peter was a very popular MP and very different to GP. Peter retains the respect of even his opponents, or rather his memory does, he sadly died a year or so ago. There were a range of local factors involved and, I have to say, we had a particularly effective election machine. The EEC issue at the time played well for the Conservatives given our geographical position and the freight related jobs that were then booming. Even I was pro EEC at the time. Labour, if you remember were divided on the issue and Wilson neutralised it by promising a referendum on membership. Locally the pro-EEC stance of the Conservatives swunj enough votes, added to Peter Rees' popularity, to go against the trend.
What is different now:
1/ Labour are much more unpopular than even Ted Heath's Tory Government and have had 13 years in Government, they are discredited and they are falling apart.
2/ We have a far worse recession and have seen an economic incompetence unparalled over the last 13 years compared to 1974.
3/ Regardless of the economy there is a clear feel that now is the time to change. Labour are tired and accident prone, Brown is a far less able PM/Leader than Wilson.
4/ We have a much more 'presidential' style of politics, whether for good and bad, in that people tend to look more at the leaders and compare. That is why Brown will come off worse, he just does not cut the mustard on TV.
As for whether Labour could come third..... I do think that there is a real chance of the Labour vote totally collapsing. I certainly hope so and would love to see them relegated to third party status. The LibDems though are likely to mess up that scenario, they are almost sure to do so.
It will certainly be an interesting election.