Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
27 January 2010
08:3938883#1
Before anyone else posts this....
The Times this morning..
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2010/01/dover-tory-ppc-charlie-elphicke-donates-7000-to-his-own-campaign.html
I was surprised that Labour raised more money than us locally.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
27 January 2010
11:1638888#2
Thats very interesting comparison there. But I guess that an MP who has been sitting for a long time will have a better prospect of raising finance. Gwyn is also a popular MP despite Conservative rumblings to the contrary and therefore has a very good chance of winning again despite the national swing to Blue, and I reckon those financing can see that..can see a return.
Charlie though is affable and could spring a surprise. His new leaflet has thumped onto my doormat this morning. Beautifully produced and highlighting the physical similarities between himself and David Cameron. The uncharitable would say they were all cloned out of the same sausage machine and honed on the playing fields of Eton but I wouldnt say that myself, as Im not at all uncharitable.
Charlie is a member of Doverforum but hasnt as yet contributed so I might just have provoked him enough there to get him to respond!
But seriously though its a very good leaflet and shows Charlie involved in all the local goings on. He has certainly got out there to meet the people which is appreciated. Communication is the key. Non communication can lead to all sorts of problems as we have seen recently.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
27 January 2010
11:2238890#3
PaulB - Gwyn will go down with his Party. He is not popular at all, as you seem to think he is. His 'donors' are primarily the Trade Unions from where he himself emerged and he has always been their man.
I am looking forward to seeing his face when his vote collapses. I would love it even more if the Libdems actually beat him into third place! The latter is not inconceivable given events and the higher marginal seat swing to the Conservatives.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
27 January 2010
14:3438906#4
this constituency has bucked the trend before, no-one can be sure what the voters will decide this time.
so much depends what the UKIP vote does.
i doubt that the lib dems will come second, their candidate is not local and the only utterance i have read that comes from him states that he dislikes all the available proposed sites for a hospital.
i have no idea what is his ideal site.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
27 January 2010
16:1538914#5
The last time Dover bucked the trend was in 1974 when Peter Rees (Conservative) held on to the seat in both elections that year.
Peter was a very popular MP and very different to GP. Peter retains the respect of even his opponents, or rather his memory does, he sadly died a year or so ago. There were a range of local factors involved and, I have to say, we had a particularly effective election machine. The EEC issue at the time played well for the Conservatives given our geographical position and the freight related jobs that were then booming. Even I was pro EEC at the time. Labour, if you remember were divided on the issue and Wilson neutralised it by promising a referendum on membership. Locally the pro-EEC stance of the Conservatives swunj enough votes, added to Peter Rees' popularity, to go against the trend.
What is different now:
1/ Labour are much more unpopular than even Ted Heath's Tory Government and have had 13 years in Government, they are discredited and they are falling apart.
2/ We have a far worse recession and have seen an economic incompetence unparalled over the last 13 years compared to 1974.
3/ Regardless of the economy there is a clear feel that now is the time to change. Labour are tired and accident prone, Brown is a far less able PM/Leader than Wilson.
4/ We have a much more 'presidential' style of politics, whether for good and bad, in that people tend to look more at the leaders and compare. That is why Brown will come off worse, he just does not cut the mustard on TV.
As for whether Labour could come third..... I do think that there is a real chance of the Labour vote totally collapsing. I certainly hope so and would love to see them relegated to third party status. The LibDems though are likely to mess up that scenario, they are almost sure to do so.
It will certainly be an interesting election.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
27 January 2010
17:0938925#6
not totally correct barry.
when gwyn won last time he was one of the few lanour mp's to survive with such a small majority.
i do sometimes think that you are driven more by hatred of the reds rather than love for the blues.
why does it matter who comes second or third?
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
27 January 2010
18:4838938#7
Howard. Not at all. In 2005 we had a swing from Lab to Conservative that was very close to the swing in South Thanet, ours was just a little less and, I suspect, that was more to do with a certain local factor, DHB, which wont work against us this time and was nothing to do with GP. Indeed it may now well work against GP. The result was not far off the national swing either and was not so far off as it could be described as bucking the trend. Bucking the trend would have had us gain the seat or on the other hand a solid swing against.
I do indeed detest Labour and want to see them utterly destroyed as a political force. They are guilty of ruining the economy of this country every single time they get into Government. I am totally at odds with their pc social values as well and while previous generations of Labour leadership, though misguided, at least had the interests of the country at heart. The present leadership certainly do not with their burnt earth economic policy they are only interested in retaining power or, as they know they are likely to lose, making the job more difficult for the Conservatives. One of my previous blogs explored this in more detail and contrasted Brown with Callaghan, Wilson, Atlee etc.
I have no time for the Libdems but would prefer to see them develop into the main opposition party, but they have a knack of screwing up their opporunities as they have even less conviction than Labour.
As for the Conservatives, I would not use the word 'love' but have been a member for 36 years and have read widely about the history of the Party. I understand the Party, approve of its values, appreciate its contribution to our country and agree with the overall thrust of current policy. I was enthusiastic about Mrs T, lukewarm to Heath and Major and am appreciative of Cameron. I am optimistic that 'appreciative' will turn to enthusiasm in Government.
Ross Miller
- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,709
27 January 2010
20:3238958#8
I think we will have to wait for the votes to be counted, though I suspect it will be a close call, with GP clinging on with a tiny majority possibly even in the tens or hundreds. I think a lot will depend on the erosion of votes for the two main players by the lib-dems and minor parties; though to be honest with Vic as their candidate we can discount them taking more than a few hundred votes off Charlie.
I do not share the same antipathy towards Labour that Barry W does; though I too would like to see their wings clipped this time round, as they, like most government before them who have staggered into and through a third term, have lost the plot. Sadly for Barry and the Tories though I do not see David Cameron as either a Prime Minister or a statesman, for me he is too lightweight, comes across as totally insincere and condescending, but maybe that is what a working life in PR does for you.
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While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi