Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#1
I hear the polling stations have been brisk.
I was out early (not as early as sometimes) doing the first knocking up leaflets in and around Castle Ward - a good sized and dedicated team working hard.
I am a big fan of Iain Dale, a top Conservative blogger. He has published some predictions and I think them interesting enough to copy them here.
Have you any predictions? Personally I think Iain may be a little pessimistic for the Conservatives but here they are....
1. I stick by my January prediction of a Tory majority of 12. (I think 20 or so)
2. Turnout will be 68-70% (I think over 70%)
3. The LibDems will get around 80 seats. (probably about right)
4. Vote share will be C 38, Lab 28, Lib 26 (I think 39-40% Conservative)
5. BBC/ITN/Sky Exit poll will predict a hung parliament - and be proved wrong. (I suspect this is right)
6. John Bercow will win by a mile. (agreed)
7. The SNP will get only 7 seats. (agreed)
8. Labour chief whip Nick Brown is defeated by the LibDems. (agreed)
9. John Denham loses his Southampton seat. (agreed)
10. Jon Cruddas will be ousted in Dagenham & Rainham by Simon Jones. (agreed)
11. Ed Balls will hang on. (disagree - this is the Portillo moment most of us would love to see, Balls out - whispers I hear is he may well be)
12. John Reid will be the first senior Labour figure to turn on Gordon Brown - guess around 3am. (agreed)
13. The Conservatives will win more than a dozen seats in Wales. (agreed)
14. Esther Rantzen will be humilated in Luton South. (I hope so)
15. Oliver Letwin will squeak through and hang on to his seat. (close, very close to call)
16. David Cameron will claim victory between 7 and 8am. (seems right)
17. The Conservatives will win between 1 and 4 seats in Scotland. (agreed)
18. Gordon Brown will resign as Labour leader by the end of Friday. (undisputable)
19. Nick Clegg will declare at between 3am and 4am that the results so far prove the need for electoral reform. (already prepared that speech..)
20. David Cameron will announce his first cabinet appointments on Friday evening and spring at least one major surprise. (agreed)
Guest 693- Registered: 12 Nov 2009
- Posts: 1,266
#2
No.20, Barry - Cameron's major surprise...........any predictions? Nick Clegg as Chancellor for instance?
Only joking, Barry!
True friends stab you in the front.
#3
No8. So farewell Nick Brown with whom I was at University in the early 70s.
Whilst I enjoyed Wagner he was slightly obsessed!
Plus he used to play the music of Sergio Leone at great volume late into the night!
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#4
And the day continues well. Not long to post here - quick break from inputting while knocking up slips printing, turnout looks good and I think my prediction of turnout will beat Iains...locally anyway...
#5
A large turnout usually bodes well for Labour. Hope I'm wrong, but would have preferred nationwide bad weather which would make the GE a shoe-in for the Tories.
Any man thay plays Sergio Leone loud has just got to be a good bloke. It is the only way to listen to spaghetti western music.
My mobile phone music is also Wagner, so, NB strikes twice in my book.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#6
Seeing Labour had its landslide with record low turnouts and John Major won in 1992 with a high turnout I am not so sure the rule still works...
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#7
interesting point about the turnout, if my local polling station is anything to go by, it will be massive.
i was busy for nearly two hours this morning putting out bedding plants, the steady stream of people passing clutching polling cards took me aback.
what i found most refreshing was the amount of families going past.
mum/dad, the offspring voting for the first time!!
all credit to gordon, dave and nick for invogorating the electorate.
Sue Nicholas- Location: river
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 6,025
#8
Just Arrived home ,apart from a couple of hours break i have been on the go since before 9.00am Good turn out in River .
Now for some food and a few glasses of wine and watching TV
#9
Don't forget to put your feet up Sue.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#10
sorry to say this susan, but chomping food and getting pie eyed in front of the box is the territory of the indigenous chav.
next step will be going into the benefits office, shaking a finger at the staff and demanding your rights .
i am trying to help you here.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#11
Sue - I assume you know about the 'lock-in'.......!!
Guest 667- Registered: 6 Apr 2008
- Posts: 919
#12
When can we expect the Dover result to come through, early hours or tomorrow?
#13
Not before Sunderland for sure. I'm getting ready for a very late night/early morning. The only thing as good as this is the Eurovision Song Contest!!!
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#14
Between 3 and 4 am Harry.
I am about to pop off to join the team.... no sleep tonight. All looks positive for us as does feedback from CCHQ....
