Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
26 January 2010
10:5838829#1
The Times Online has just reported - extract:
...""""Britain today emerged from the longest recession in modern history but the economy grew by just 0.1 per cent between October and December, far below expectations of a 0.4 per cent rebound.......
......In 2009 as a whole, the economy fell by more than 4.8 per cent, the fastest pace of decline in a single year for 88 years, and more than in any 12 month period since the Great Depression.
Britain is the last major economy to emerge from a full-blown downturn after the United States, Japan, China, Germany and France all climbed out of recession in the third quarter between July and September last year. America will reveal whether it has sustained its recovery when it releases fourth-quarter GDP figures this week.""""""
Well there it is, what Brown has been waiting for.
I suppose any news of improvement has to be welcome but this 0.1% is a great disappointment when something like 0.4% was expected. Bear in mind that this is in a period that ends with Christmas and the last minute sales before the VAT was increased. I have predicted that Q1 in 2010 will see a negative growth figure again and now this is much more likely.
I believe that a March election date (maybe even earlier) now more likely as a result.
What is interesting is that we have an official definition of a recession, two consecutive quarters of negative growth, but there is no definition of recovery. It would be logical to me for a recovery to be defined as two consecutive quarters of growth. But no, this tiny improvement will enable Brown to boast a recovery knowing full well it is not likely to be sustained into Q1.
There is nothing for Brown to boast about with these figures.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
26 January 2010
11:1338830#2
Some reaction to the figures is now coming through. Found these comments:
Andrew Lilico, Chief Economist of Policy Exchange commented: "These are appalling figures. This is just the preliminary estimate, and the chances of being revised down by 0.1% or more are about evens, so we may well still be in recession. And that is taking account of an inventory bounce as firms restocked their warehouses and the shift of consumption from January into December as households tried to avoid the VAT rise. It now seems certain that there will be a double dip back into recession next year, and that may come as soon as the first quarter. The slip back into recession might be announced in late April, right at the peak of the General Election campaign. Grim."
Shadow Chancellor George Osborne said: "Gordon Brown's promise that Britain would lead the world out of recession lies in tatters. We were one of the first in and now, today, we are the last out. One of the reasons is clear: Gordon Brown's decisions as Chancellor left Britain ill-prepared and his judgements as Prime Minister made the recession even worse. Gordon Brown's legacy will be the Great Recession."
A Channel 4/ ICM poll last night said that voters were unlikely to reward Labour for the end of recession... "Asked if the end of the recession would make them more likely to vote Labour, 12% said yes. That could, presumably, be significant in marginal seats. But it is more or less cancelled out by the 10% who say the end of the recession will make them "less likely to vote Labour" - thankless business, politics." Tim Montgomery comments on that...this was before they knew how feeble it was.
In many ways this feeble growth figure is the worse possible political news for Gordon Brown. The media will be all over it emphasising just how poor these are relative to expectations. I expect this to reflect badly on his polling.
Guest 693- Registered: 12 Nov 2009
- Posts: 1,266
26 January 2010
11:2838831#3
I wouldn't expect Barry to be anything other than extremely vociferous in putting the Labour Government down, however on this occasion I think he's justified in doing so. The details of Britain emerging from recession have been anticipated by nearly all commentators as being near the 0.5% mark, and for the actual figure to be just 0.1% bordering on nil will have dealt the Government a hard blow in the solarplexus. With the recession ending all over Europe in much stronger figures, what had been a dawn of hope for the Prime Minister may well to more harm to his tenure of No.10 than the failed coup of a couple of weeks ago.
Can I detect the sound of knives being sharpened in Walworth Road?
True friends stab you in the front.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
26 January 2010
15:4638836#4
Oh dear.... more information from the IMF found in the Wall Street Journal.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100126-706977.html?mod=WSJ_World_MIDDLEHeadlinesEurope
So the world is coming out of recession quicker than expected. But not the UK, trailing behind....
Now what was the Brown/Darling claim of being in a better position........
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
26 January 2010
19:2038856#5
Well yes this is the thinnest of all thin recoveries..One tenth of one percent ..well it just couldnt be any smaller in reality. Now Labour are facing the grimmest possible scenario with the next quarter looking potentially to be back in 'zero gravity' again, as the first quarter of the year at this time is sure to be bad. The growth figures or should that be lack of growth figures will pop onto our tv screens just before a general election unless Gordon Brown surprises us all and goes for one soon. Somehow the mood isnt in place for a general election right now. Apathy is rife as you will have noted with that survey yesterday, and its far too cold for the electorate to bother with anything but their home TV screen and to rub their hands with glee if your older that Labour has given us a winter fuel allowance.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
27 January 2010
16:3838919#6
Here is some news for you that casts further problems for the Brown approach...
Bill Gross is the founder and chief investment officer of Pimco. He thinks the prospects for the UK economy is very bad. I quote:
"The UK is a must to avoid. Its gilts are resting on a bed of nitroglycerine.
"High debt with the potential to devalue its currency present high risks for bond investors.
"In addition, its interest rates are already artificially influenced by accounting standards that at one point last year produced long-term real interest rates of 0.5 per cent and lower."
Pimco are the world's biggest bonds-based fund managers and the Government is depending on the sale of Government Gilts to fund its spending. This man's opinion matters to the British Government and is a good sign that the UK is headed for a downgrading from AAA. This is the route to much higher interest rates payable by the Government, that will then require bigger cuts to public spending and services to stop further downgrading. We are risking a catastrophe of a downward spiral.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
28 January 2010
18:1639026#7
barryw,not worthy of an answer looking at your frame of mind and the labour party.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
28 January 2010
19:1139028#8
You mean that you dont have an answer Brian.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
28 January 2010
19:2939031#9
just cant be botherd with politics at the moment.
Guest 693- Registered: 12 Nov 2009
- Posts: 1,266
28 January 2010
20:5139034#10
Don't be apathetic Brian.....it's important! God help us, we could end up with four more years of Gordon Brown.
True friends stab you in the front.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
28 January 2010
21:5539043#11
rather that than eat porridge andy.its all claim/counter claim now that an election is looming,its that boring it turns most people off then apathy strikes.
Guest 674- Registered: 25 Jun 2008
- Posts: 3,391
28 January 2010
22:1939045#12
HAVE to say rather have gordon brown
than cameron(if hes still leader)
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
28 January 2010
22:5339055#13
not sure that either are destined for greatness.
we have nigel farage standing closely behind lord pearson.
if either should go on holiday, vic would be a great stand in.
he could dismantle the peace talks in northern ireland and palestine in minutes.
29 January 2010
00:1739060#14
With all due respect Keith, both Gordon and iDave leave me completely cold.
In the words of Bill Clinton 'It's the economy stupid' and even if Gids (a failed historian) takes over from Alistair (the failed lawyer) it will take more than the inherited wealth from his father's luxury wallpaper company to paper over the cracks.
As Erasmus said 'in the kingdom of the blind the one eyed man is king', which is why only John Redwood (a local lad, from a council house in Canterbury, who has done well for himself by pure intellect) and the ubiquitous Vince Cable (a grammar school boy with a PhD in Economics) talk anything approaching common sense.
Most of the rest of them do not have enough real business knowledge to run a whelk stall successfully.
Frankly, if you asked MPs for their view on Keynes, most of the Tories would think they were something that one was beaten with at Eton, whilst those on the Government benches would think they were something that their dad put up for his runner beans each year.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
29 January 2010
11:1139068#15
i have a lot of time for vince cable, pity that he is unlikely ever to be closely involved with government.
as for john redwood, he always comes across as bitter, never getting the high office that he thinks he deserves.
i don't see anyone on either of the front benches that seems destined to be a great leader.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
29 January 2010
13:4839072#16
Bob - I agree with you about John Redwood, I have always admired his intellect.
Vince Cable though, his bubble burst at the LibDem Conference where he confirmed my view that he was/is highly over rated. Much loved by the BBC means he gets an easy ride.
Bob, I am glad that most MPs are not economists, the only thing worse than a parliament full of economists would be one full of lawyers. Remember the 300+ including Mervyn King who wrote to The Times complaining about Geoffrey Howe's 1982 budget, they all had egg all over their faces when it was shown to have been the catalyst for 8 years of solid growth.
Certainly we do need some economically literate people in Parliament as we have seen over the past 13 year what damage an economic illiterate, who wont accept good advice can do.
Do not underestimate David Cameron or George Osborne, DC of course is one of the economic literates having an economics degree (Oxford I believe).
29 January 2010
14:5539075#17
BarryW- iDave's degree is PPE (Politics,Philosophy + Economics).
My daughter also has a PPE from Oxford. Knowing the state of her finances I wait to be impressed....
Hopefully iDave spent more time studying the E rather than the two P's.
(Yours, c/o Bank of Mum and Dad)
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
29 January 2010
16:1439081#18
Well the USA have released their figures...
""""The economy grew faster than expected at the end of last year, though the engine of that growth — companies replenishing stockpiles — is likely to weaken as consumers keep a lid on spending.
The 5.7 percent annual growth rate in the fourth quarter was the fastest pace since 2003. The Commerce Department report Friday is the strongest evidence to date that the worst recession since the 1930s ended last year, though an academic panel that dates recessions has yet to declare an end to it.""""
Brown just kept saying that our recession was worldwide and blamed the Americans and just kept on rolling out that same old excuse, nothing to do with me guv....
We know that we were among the first to go into recession and we now know that we were among the last to get out of it, indeed the pathetic 0.1% Q4 figure for the UK may still be revised down leaving us still in recession.
Browns fig leaf was a pretty ragged affair at the best of times, but it is now blown completely away showing his economic mismanagement in all its naked glory. No longer can he try to claim 'world recession', the USA powers ahead leaving us still mired in the mud.