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Until Greece quits the Euro.
A matter of weeks according to John Greenwood who is the Chief Economist at Invesco Perpetual, who supplie one of the best regular economic briefings I get.
He says the only thing that can prevent that is a 'rapid move to full fiscal and monetary union in the Eurozone'. That means the creation of a full federated single country for the Eurozone and after the conference that has just ended that looks less and less likely (that's me saying the latter)
He believes that even after just a few months of Greece being outside the Eurozone, Ireland and Portugal may want to leave followed by Spain and Italy.
There would very likely be a run on banks in these countries and large scale defaults on debt. The impact will be massive and the markets will be chaotic for a while.
I have said it before.
It is time for the Eurozone to face the facts and to plan the break up of the Euro so we have a managed decoupling so the worst of the chaos can be avoided. Sadly I am not confident that this will be the case based on their track record so far.
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