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Howard - there are many aspects to a recession, different parts of the economy and different indicators behave in different ways. You also, like the stock market, get 'bear market rallies'. Mixed signals also occur. Last month alone we had one lender talking about an increase in borrowing while another reported a reduction. The sooner we get a real recovery the better and I certainly hope we get an economic upturn soon.
On borrowing for instance, one lender announced that a record proportion of home loan applications were refused last month. All the figures, anyway, from all lenders, even those showing an upturn, are reflecting a move from an appallingly poor position. It will be a while before we see a real recovery - Darling will say so himself next week when he puts off his forcast.
Unemployment remember is a 'lagging indicator' with figures likely to increase to 3.4m unemployed over the next 18 months.
One indicator that moves ahead of a recovery is the stock market. It remains around (FTSE100) the 4,000 mark, though up from its low point. I am hopeful of a rally there over the next few months, though I am, I admit, more bullish than many. This would be in line with my estimate of a recovery being under way early next year, a little more pessimistic than Darling is expected to be but then it is he who is moving his estimate more towards my position.