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    Now, now people. Do not get carried away. I was discussing the matter with some experts yesterday who said that there are signs that the rate of decline is reducing, very different from a recovery. Given the rate of decline that we have seen until now it is hardly surprising.

    As for the VAT cut, no, there is no real substantial evidence that it has worked
    at all, after all it was what, a 2.25% price cut set off against overall price discounts of 20% to 50%, a mere drop in the ocean.

    The rate of exchange remains devalued by over 20%.

    You will see next week that the Chancellor will be putting off his estimate for recovery to the end of the year. He is still being a bit too optimistic, I believe that recovery will start early next year but it will be much later before the public feel the benefit, possibly not until 2011. recovery is likely to start in the USA before it starts here.

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