howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#1
maybe our pm has got something right here.
tonight the pound is worth 1. 49 us dollars and 1.13 euros.
the chartered surveying people are saying that interest from home buyers is gaining momentum.
yesterday a think tank was extolling the virtues of the vat rate cut, and the ensuing positive effect in the high street.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#2
sssssssh dont tell barryw he will only get upset.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#3
worry ye not brian, barry will go into great detail about the prime minister having to be thankful to previous blue adminstrations for any possible upturn.
when the conservatives were in power all those eons ago, they used to call it the "green shoots of recovery".
Guest 653- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,540
#4
I don't know where that Pound/Euro or Pound/Dollar valuation comes from, but it certainly isn't what people can get from their Banks or the Dover Eurochange.
Maybe that's on the International Money Exchange centre.
Roger
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#5
Now, now people. Do not get carried away. I was discussing the matter with some experts yesterday who said that there are signs that the rate of decline is reducing, very different from a recovery. Given the rate of decline that we have seen until now it is hardly surprising.
As for the VAT cut, no, there is no real substantial evidence that it has worked
at all, after all it was what, a 2.25% price cut set off against overall price discounts of 20% to 50%, a mere drop in the ocean.
The rate of exchange remains devalued by over 20%.
You will see next week that the Chancellor will be putting off his estimate for recovery to the end of the year. He is still being a bit too optimistic, I believe that recovery will start early next year but it will be much later before the public feel the benefit, possibly not until 2011. recovery is likely to start in the USA before it starts here.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#6
is that the offical tory line barry.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#7
Fact Brian. I have a professional interest in the economy and must keep up to date with developments. Indeed I have a direct professional and financial interest in an economic recovery so the sooner it comes the better for me.
Guest 660- Registered: 14 Mar 2008
- Posts: 3,205
#8
Good Barry we can look forward to you voting Labour then,when all Gordon told us turned out to be true,I admit slower than he thought and perhaps a bigger problem than he thought,but I look forward to the day when you admit the PM and Chancellor was right,and you were just a little bit wrong.
If you knew what I know,we would both be in trouble!
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#9
Errrr no JHG. Whatever Brown was to do or not do in respose to the recession, we will get out of it eventually, these thing are cyclical. His capacity is only to make it worse, or better, than it might otherwise be. He has done the damage leaving us worth a massive debt headache and the risk of a 'double dip' recession, as I have warned about before. Recovery will be in spite of Brown and not because of him.
Tell you what JHG, if you think the huge spending splurge is so worthwhile and effective I will send you a bill for my share of it - what £26,000 approx right now.
Never has so much money been spent by any Government to so little effect.
Ross Miller
- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,709
#10
So you would have let the banks go the wall?
Not used state funding to support the finance sector?
It is easy to decry someones efforts when you offer no alternative solutions yourself
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." - James Dean
"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#11
Actually Ross, no. I wont bother to point out that we would not have been in that position if I had my way, i would not have changed banking regulation in such a disasterous way, I would have repaid government debt and so on.
Ultimately though the Northern Rock bailout and others were mishandled, all previously discussed, I would also be making swinging cuts to public spending so the private sector dont have to take all the burden of the recession, just for starters.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#12
barry
i am confused by your statement about the slowdown in decline and there not being a recovery.
i have just checked those exchange rates again, they are much the same as when i posted.
furthermore the rics is a respected institution, they say that there has been a steady rise, over a few months, in the number of new enquiries.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#13
Howard - there are many aspects to a recession, different parts of the economy and different indicators behave in different ways. You also, like the stock market, get 'bear market rallies'. Mixed signals also occur. Last month alone we had one lender talking about an increase in borrowing while another reported a reduction. The sooner we get a real recovery the better and I certainly hope we get an economic upturn soon.
On borrowing for instance, one lender announced that a record proportion of home loan applications were refused last month. All the figures, anyway, from all lenders, even those showing an upturn, are reflecting a move from an appallingly poor position. It will be a while before we see a real recovery - Darling will say so himself next week when he puts off his forcast.
Unemployment remember is a 'lagging indicator' with figures likely to increase to 3.4m unemployed over the next 18 months.
One indicator that moves ahead of a recovery is the stock market. It remains around (FTSE100) the 4,000 mark, though up from its low point. I am hopeful of a rally there over the next few months, though I am, I admit, more bullish than many. This would be in line with my estimate of a recovery being under way early next year, a little more pessimistic than Darling is expected to be but then it is he who is moving his estimate more towards my position.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#14
i agree with most of the points you have raised barry, but any signs of improvements need to be talked up.
in your second paragraph, you refer to lenders turning away possible borrowers.
that must mean that confidence is rising in the general population, they are just being let down by our banking "scroungers".
Guest 660- Registered: 14 Mar 2008
- Posts: 3,205
#15
Hear Hear Howard,we have a long way to go,and I am sure that there will still be alot of not so good news,but the spring is here and some signs are looking good,so lets all brighten up in Dover,otherwise we will all become negative and downbeat like Barry
If you knew what I know,we would both be in trouble!
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#16
we will soon be inundated with tourists john, when they enter market square, there will be a throng for a change.
maybe we can all be greeters when they arrive, leaving them with a memory that says, "we must go back to dover"?
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#17
Realistic, JHG, in fact if anything I am on the bullish side when you read the amount of economic commentaries I do....
I dont disagree with the talking up point, at the end of the day the economy is about confidence but people are not stupid, they know there is still an awful lot of pain to come and you simply discredit yourself if you do not acknowldge that.
Howard - yes but the point is a lot of people being turned down are attempting to re-mortgage to benefit from low rates, it is not so much new borrowing for purchases.
Currently properties are still being down valued quite heavily. I have a case, of which I have first hand experience, in respect of a self-build project, 'oop north' where the land was valued at £150k a few weeks ago, the prospective lender decided to get it re-valued due to a delay and they then came up with £75k, a huge difference, the deal fell through on that, which was what the nationalised bank wanted. My colleague has found a way to deal with this, fortunately for the individual concerned. I am only thankful I am not heavily into mortgages in my business or I would have a serious cashflow problem, not that it is easy even so!