The post you are reporting:
Keith, from the Telegraph 21 April 2013:
"(Conservative) party chiefs particularly fear a UKIP surge in counties including Essex, Kent, Gloucestershire, Northamptonshire, Lincolnshire, Suffolk and Norfolk."
What you are predicting, Keith, is one thing, what the Tory party predicts is a UKIP surge in Kent and along the whole East Coast, and elsewhere too in the Shires.
You're thinking in terms of four years ago, Keith, when forecasting election results.