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Brian, DC has made clear in his speech that he intends to stand as Prime Minister in the next government, so obviously he has made a commitment to the Conservative party that in return he will offer an in/out ref.
He could not - and would not - have made this commitment without prior consultation with the Tory MPs.
Hence, it is now official that Conservative policy is for a change in Britain's relationship with the European Union, and that we will have an in-out vote anyway.
I'm afraid you're playing a mute piano on this, Brian, with conjectures that can never come true: the Tories CANNOT renege this promise!
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