IMF latest...

• Guest 655

  • Registered: 13 Mar 2008
  • Posts: 10,247
  10 July 2013     07:48236921
  #1       report
  The IMF have revised their growth expectation for the UK economy - Upwards, from 0.7% to 0.9% for this year.
  
  Not a lot, true, but it is significant and a welcome change from what seemed like endless downwards revisions.
  
  This is in direct contrast to most of the Eurozone and even some emerging market economies where growth has again been revised down.
  
  I said 6 months ago after the 'second dip that never was' that the UK was performing better than the headline figure led us to expect. That was based on underlying business activity and it is now staring to show in the figures.
  
  There are still many challenges that threaten us, the Eurozone in particular but lets not spoil the good news by dwelling on that.
  
  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10169070/IMF-upgrades-UK-growth-as-its-cuts-rest-of-the-world.html
• Guest 696

  • Registered: 31 Mar 2010
  • Posts: 8,115
  10 July 2013     18:24236974
  #2       report
  A couple of extra bank holidays for the house of Windsor each knocked about 0.5% out of the GDP.
  This is a luxury that not every house can afford!
  Chanters, Drums and Drones Potty Time http://youtu.be/99fMqpjnXYA
  Rule Britannia!
  Kent First http://youtu.be/04F3mAP3fV4 Keep banging on http://youtu.be/qYCU_SKmkGQ
• Brian Dixon

  • Location: Dover
  • Registered: 23 Sep 2008
  • Posts: 23,940
  10 July 2013     21:11236979
  #3       report
  witch house are you talking about alex.
• Guest 725

  • Registered: 7 Oct 2011
  • Posts: 1,418
  10 July 2013     21:34236983
  #4       report
  Are you really sure it's safe to believe what the IMF says? Their track record doesn't quite match up to their reputation in the mind of some.
  Remember this:
  No third runway, HS2, decarbonisation, currency devaluation, decline of manufacturing, flight of financial services overseas, no growth, no growth, no growth.
  I'm not a member of the IMF or any other financial institution but all I see is long term decline.
• Guest 655

  • Registered: 13 Mar 2008
  • Posts: 10,247
  11 July 2013     07:54237012
  #5       report
  Philip - I agree about their track record but what is important here is the reversal from ever downgrading the UK growth prospects to an upgrade while in the face of reduced prospects for other countries. Add that to other indicators as well.
  
  As for your other points - good no third runway - they should use Manston instead combined with an extension of HR1 giving a 1 hour journey to London, better than Heathrow. HR2, perhaps not the best option but better rail services cannot be a waste of time. Decarbonisation - over the top nonsense I agree, devaluation - well that is a matter for the markets and we can be thankful that we have that option still in the armoury. As for the rest, I have said before the hate campaign against the City is seriously damaging but that is not the government and of course, a rebalance towards manufacturing is needed but again it is the market that rightly should determine that. At the end of the day we need supply-side reform to de-risk employing people and encourage business expansion, lower simple taxes and a lot less government spending, interference and red tape - that lot will get us faster growth.
• Guest 683

  • Registered: 11 Feb 2009
  • Posts: 1,052
  11 July 2013     10:12237046
  #6       report
  It sounds positive news but it's not outstanding and growth isn't set to improve greatly so we are not out of the woods; it's certainly not enough for the Conservatives to pin their hopes on for a general election victory.
  As for the IMF, they are an unelected, unrepresentative (other than of banks and big business) body imposing their ideology and stooges on nations in return for favours. Those who do not play ball (Greek populace) can expect nothing but venom.
  Who does the IMF answer to?
• Guest 725

  • Registered: 7 Oct 2011
  • Posts: 1,418
  11 July 2013     10:37237057
  #7       report
  Barry I don't think that you understand the basic fundamentals of how a hub status airport works.
  The idea is that international travelers are able to land at the airport and then take any interconnecting flights to other countries quickly and easily with as little fuss and time saved as possible. So, for example, an American wanting to travel to the Mid East would land at Heathrow and then simply take a bus to another terminal and fly away happy and content that they'd reach their destination on time.
  Any hopes for Manston in this regard are hopelessly delusional. All it does is spread the noise problem which is contained in West London to Thanet.
  As far as HS2 goes what you are saying is that we should just dump £100 billion on the project because it might do some good.
  Not exactly a well thought through concept.
  Devaluation has less to do with markets but more to do with government and central bank policy.
  As for supply side reforms I'd agree with all that.
• Guest 745

  • Registered: 27 Mar 2012
  • Posts: 3,370
  11 July 2013     11:19237061
  #8       report
  Didn't the conservatives borrow £118 billon last year??
  
  Why would we be up graded to AAA ?
  
  
  If I borrowed on my credit card like this wouldn't I be junk rated
  
  Keith or reg need not comment
• Guest 655

  • Registered: 13 Mar 2008
  • Posts: 10,247
  11 July 2013     11:56237067
  #9       report
  Keith B - unless they made a lot more cuts almost instantly more borrowing was unavoidable such as the terrible situation we are in. The spending on the national credit card was being reduced until Labour accelerated it in 2000 at a time when they should have balanced spending leaving us right 'up the creek' when the downturn started in 2007.
  
  Nobody seriously would suggest the UK credit rating should be improved but imagine how much worse it would be if the cuts, inadequate as they are, were not made or done at an even slower rate. It would be a true disaster.
  
  Philip - there is a lot on this we can agree on but I am saying we need to rethink airports. To carry on expanding Heathrow is just not viable. A rebalancing of with a Eastern airport hub at Manston would involve some changes but would at least spread the load.
  
  Mark: Just seen this from City AM - it reinforces what the IMF have said and what I have said recently.
  
  

  
• Guest 683

  • Registered: 11 Feb 2009
  • Posts: 1,052
  11 July 2013     15:26237085
  #10       report
  Let's hope the IMF policies in the periphery countries do not derail this.