howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#1
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#2
I won't go into detail but if they want the Euro to survive, at least in some form, then they have a choice:
1/ They go for a fully integrated economic policy with the EU having control of fiscal and monetary policy - in other words the Eurozone countries would finally cease any kind of pretence of being independent countries - Eurobonds would be a move along that direction and one that would mask the many inconsistencies in Europe eventually forcing this change to full economic integration. or...
2/ The break up the Euro into two or three 'sub-currencies'. This is the answer that makes most sense and will help economic recovery the fastest though there would be initial ructions in the market. The problem here is that a lot of politicians have invested a lot of political capital in the Euro and seemingly will just carry on fudging and limping along as long as they can.
One of the two above must happen to the Eurozone.
The value of the Euro is just wrong for the weaker economies and without being able to float their currency they will just carry on struggling - it cannot last forever.
I am just glad we are not part of that.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#3
intergration would be nice to go into,george osbourne has stated that the uk has to intergrate more with the eurozone in order to/for the uk to survive this latest crises.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#4
No Brian he said nothing of the kind.
He has said that the Eurozone should integrate, one on the two solutions available for them out of the current crisis as I explained above.
He did not say we should join the Eurozone at all and he remains adamantly against British membership of the disastrous Euro currency.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#5
excuse me barry for being right for once,he did state this on the news the other night. [itn news broadcast.]
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#6
You clearly did not understand what he actually said Brian. He is firmly against British entry into the Euro.
Here is a link to a more authorative article and you will see there is no hint that he thinks this country should join the Eurozone at all. By saying the Eurozone should integrate he is 'saying the right things' to the European heads of government and that would be more stable for them but realistically that will not happen so a break up of the Euro is more likely to be forced on them.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jUtBW2j9ZFf9NvVf0xGCQXmSxf8g?docId=CNG.1b817bcfcbc62131345ee7f54e23d1d5.3a1Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#7
barryw,i didnt mention going into the euro money system,just more intergration into helping them to help us,differant.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#8
Brian - you said in #3 ---- pasted : """" intergration would be nice to go into,george osbourne has stated that the uk has to intergrate more with the eurozone in order to/for the uk to survive this latest crises."""""
You clearly said about the 'UK integrating more with the Eurozone' for the UK to survive this crisis - that is simply untrue.
Why not just admit you made an error?
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#9
the thing that caught my eye the most was the general ambivalence of the german public towards any more bail outs.
hardly surprising there own growth figures are hardly impressive, certainy not enough to be able to afford susbidising greece.
add to that 44% of the population want to return to the deutsche mark.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#10
True Howard.
Ross Miller
- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,709
#11
There is a short term option sort of the 2 medium to long term options that Barry outlined
Sadly it is probably just as unpalatable to the Germans
This option is to buy Greek, Portuguese, Spanish and Irish Treasury bonds at the the heavily discounted rates they are available and then wipe out the discount; at a "swipe" reducing the PIGS debt substantially - fundamentally this means everyone takes a haircut across the whole market - but probably better than an early cold bath...
This of course only deals with the current crisis, it doesnt deal with the long term disparity in economic power etc between the core and the fringes of the eurozone
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." - James Dean
"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#12
I did make reference to that Ross in respect of it being a step towards full integration. Effectively it would be rewarding fiscal irresponsibility and letting the overspenders off the hook. If the spending of these governments were not brought under control they would soon be back to square one, indeed it could be argued that by relieving them of the pressure they would be freed up to carry on in their same old irresponsible way. That is why it could only be done as a step to full economic integration.
We see today that France and Germany are making a bid towards this and to controlling the economic policies of all Eurozone countries.
It wont work - after all, where is democracy in all this? The 'will of the people' has always played second fiddle to the ambitions of the European integrationists, this could well be a step too far and may even lead to the complete break up of the EU itself. I remain convinced that the first pre-requisite to recovery must be the break up of the Eurozone and then for the big spenders to be forced to deal with the consequences of their own policies.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#13
barryw,you do make me laugh,you and your sceptic views on europe.or should that be septic views.
on intergration,i was talking economic intergration and not monertary one.
Guest 698- Registered: 28 May 2010
- Posts: 8,664
#14
Barry, you ask where is democracy? Democracy is only really ingrained in the national DNA of the Anglo-Saxon countries and a few others like Switzerland. Most other European countries have come relatively late to the concept and as a result their decision makers, once elected, act in a far more dictatorial way than ours, the democratic link back to their voters being relatively weak.
This is, I believe, the simple explanation as to why the EU machinery seems so undemocratic to the British but quite normal to other European nations.
I'm an optimist. But I'm an optimist who takes my raincoat - Harold Wilson
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#15
Brian - try reading what is said and addressing what is said if you want a sensible debate, take a hint from Peter.
Peter, I know exactly what I mean but the point I was trying to make in that was simply this.
The people of countries most deeply in the do-do as a result of their fiscal irresponsibility such as Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, may well, just but with protest, accept the difficult medicine involved in the spending cuts required if made by a government they elected. But, if those same cuts were to be imposed by the Germans and French who they did not elect then we have a recipe for a disaster. These countries have a record of turning to fascist or military regimes in the very recent past when in difficulty and that may well happen in this situation... The EU could well be torn apart by that, not just the currency - not necessarily a bad thing to end the mad experiment with the European superstate but overall it would create yet more problems for us. Better an orderly break up of the Euro for all concerned.