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The central argument in this book is old hat. Serious economists have often argued that variations in classic money supply (M3) are inadequate to explain price volatility; however back in 1982 David Lomax, who was then chief economist of NatWest bank, wrote an excellent book showing that future price movements were more correlated to M3 plus undrawn credit lines - in fact it wasnt as simple as that, consumer prices tended to follow M3 more closely whereas asset (share, property) prices tended more to follow the credit figures. He also pointed out that it was clear that past asset price changes could be explained by changes in drawings on credit lines, whereas future price changes could be predicted by changes in availability of credit, with an adjustment for the price of such facilities. It is therefore axiomatic that house price inflation can be controlled by restricting the availability of cheap loans.
Sorry to quote an economist David, but he was right, and I did predict the present slump in the summer of 2007, based on the run on Northern Rock and Tony Blair bailing out of No.10. Thats why I laid off all our full time staff in Jan 2008.
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