howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
howard,it seems that scaremongering is becoming fashionable about the euro,eu and everything evidentale to do with europe.but saying that is it a cover up for our own demise thats forth coming here by our goverment.
Guest 716- Registered: 9 Jun 2011
- Posts: 4,010
#. 2............Agree.............Nil desperandum!
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
Civil unrest and riots could break out in Italy, as the whole eurozone goes bankrupt.
It's good that the Government is making emergency plans to evacuate British expats stranded in Europe to bring them back to our Shores if the worst happens and they cannot withdraw their savings in Europe, or if crowds descend in the streets rioting.
Gov will also have to find emergency housing for these people, it could be hundreds of thousands suddenly coming back. And they will need to be funded if their money in Europe is not paid out to them.
Still, here in good Old Britain no need to despair, as Reg rightly points out. My few hundred pounds are tied up with Halifax/Bank ofScotland, so that's a safe place and no need to worry.
Business as usual!
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
a leading french economist estimates that the currency has a 50/50 chance of surviving until christmas.
dave and george are taking each day as it comes, the longer it takes to crash the better chance they have of lessening the damage to us.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
What a doomsday scenario, it is positively alarming. I am hoping even at this late juncture that they will be able to save the thing. The article above has hallmarks of a futuristic warzone nightmare scenario about it, like science fiction in real life...lets hope it does not come to pass.
If the euro can be saved, and we can get back to trading properly again, it will be our best solution. Already our firms here are struggling, saw some on TV the other day, their exports to the EU have fallen off a roof because of the crises over there in Eurozone.. nobody over there is buying right now.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
The money is simple not there as it used to be, so if they just printed more euros, I mean something that makes a difference, say a trillion or two, they'd fall straight away into the Germany 1921 inflation crisis. So they can't do that.
Spain has 40% youth unemployment, double that of Britain.
The chances of the youth finding employment are gone in many euro countries.
When last week France declared near bankruptcy (in technical terms), it became clear that the attempt of the Paris-Berlin Axis to save the eurozone had failed.
No-one can catch falling Italy. Not even robust British women who have been called the most obese!!!
(I dispiute this!).
So it seems Italy will crash right through the floorboards, as we already have our arms full of our own debts and unemployment.
And Germany seems to have decided that they can't do anything about Italy either.
It seems now the cry is: "Save yourself, the ship's going down under!"
Guest 725- Registered: 7 Oct 2011
- Posts: 1,418
Don't get too complacent. A run on UK banks is a distinct possibility if the balloon goes up. UK banks are exposed to European debt and contagion has a habit of taking on a life of it's own. If one UK bank finds itself in difficulty there will be rumour followed by panic and queues forming outside bank branches.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
remember northan rock had a run a couple of years back or has every one forgotten about it.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
I do think that this is excessively pessimistic.
Yes the Euro is unlikely to survive and the real question is whether it will have an orderly end or not. The 50% chance or survival is rather high.
The collapse of that currency, after the initial shocks, will be the catalyst for recovery. The sooner it collapses the better.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
Brian, the Northern Rock affair was entirely different.
In 2008, starting with Northern Rock, a whole series of banks went short of cash, not because they were bankrupt, but because a substantial part of their assets had dropped in value.
Here we have the euro that is about to crash, because State treasuries in Euroland have run out of cash, have no asstes and have only debts. Something entirely different.
If Euroland can hold out till Christmas, we in Britain will have more time to get our act together.
After which it will be a Dunkirk-style evacuation
If the euro collapses after Christmas, it won't matter.
Guest 725- Registered: 7 Oct 2011
- Posts: 1,418
This is a case of hope over expectation. We are far from insulated from events in Europe. When economists speak of a shockwave felt around the world in such an event we enter unknown territory. Confidence will be shaken to the core. Far Eastern markets will probably be the first to glow red as shares plummet followed by an event timeline dictated by the rotation of the earth as daylight wakes up traders in other countries. There will be panic make no mistake Mr. Mainwaring.
As it stands the repercussions can only be guessed but the markets and financial intitutions are no different from us all and reasoned thought will inevitably be replaced by trading floors and offices in major capitals by heart rates rocketing as any risk assets are ditched. Even supposedly safer, low risk financial instruments will be at risk.
Panic is a funny thing. Observe any high stress situation and watch people's reactions as hitherto novel events unfold. The same happened during the Wall street crash.
I could be wrong but human nature being what it is in such situations has to be factored in rather than depending on what the "experts" tell us.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
have to agree philip, officially there is no need to panic.
there is no way i will be down at the cash machine tonight drawing my maximum daily allowance then waiting until a minute after midnight before drawing tomorrow's amount.
i feel sure that our members will all be as responsible as me.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
Of-course we needn't panic. But I do believe that house prices will fall drastically in Britain before long, as a direct result of the financial crisis.
Guest 725- Registered: 7 Oct 2011
- Posts: 1,418
That is a given Alexander. They certainly will fall although slightly richer folk from rich and exotic climes are buying up property in the better parts of London as a hedge. As for the rest of we mere mortals, indeed, they will plummet.
What's worse is that the torrid economic peril we face is only one side of the story.
Now that our government has seen fit to impose further, ahem, green measures to save the planet we will be lucky if any new houses are built after 2016.
They have decreed that all new homes must be (scuze me while I pace the room for a moment before writing this) must be zero carbon. So according to those in the field this will add an extra 37 odd grand to the price of an average house.
Furthermore those unlucky to live in rural locations will find that new builds will be banned from installing oil or gas fired cylinder heating. They will have to fend off the cold by using wood pellets or heat pumps whatever the hell those are.
At 11 grand and 18 grand respectively yet more costs are added on.
So yes you're quite right house prices will fall in the short term but with such a shortage of housing and our population increasing exponentially who can really tell where they go?
Guest 725- Registered: 7 Oct 2011
- Posts: 1,418
Oh and I should add this won't help us crawl out of this economic mess:
From today's Telegraph a small quote,
"Chris Huhne, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary, is due to announce details of a foreign aid package ahead of government talks at a United Nation's summit on climate change in Durban, South Africa, which start this week".
Now guess how much of our money is going to be wasted.
£1 million........nope.
£100 million.......nope.
£1 BILLION.
Remember that figure next time you're in the voting booth.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
His announcement to give 1 billion pounds in foreign aid might be a tactic to show that Britain has no financial problems when Euroland gets hit by massive defaults and unemployment. Who knows?
It could also be that the 1 billion quid are used to buy - and promote - British products in countries likie China that pollute a lot. So it could even lead to a beneficial return to our productive economy.
Actually now should be the time to promote British manufacture world-wide, as European competition is riddled with euro-downfall.
Speaking of China, they risk losing out mightily once Europe goes into insolvency. So raise the Union Jack and forwards march, create jobs at home for the British and export to China and elsewhere.
Rule Britannia!
Guest 725- Registered: 7 Oct 2011
- Posts: 1,418
Huh?
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
Well yes, Philip, we have the technological know-how, and millions of unemployed, so all we need do is promote far and wide our technology to curb pollution and gain lucrative contracts, create jobs, and cash in the money for a good cause.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
foriegn aid has always been a sweetener to countries to enable us easy access to their markets.
we know that almost none of it goes towards helping the poor.