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Well, as stated recently on the Forum, recent opinion polls (yougov and Reid Angus) show that the number of people in Britain who would vote to stay in the EU is declining each year, and is now at about - if I remember rightly - 30%.
Those who would vote to leave reached about 48%.
That in itself would be a fairly high turnout, in as much as 80% of people questioned would vote one way or the other.
As for the relationship Tories/UKIP on the EU, the Tory Party officially is not for Britain leaving the EU, UKIP is dedicated to leaving.
My personal view is that top pieces in the Tory leadership are playing their last cards out, at government level, and that we might be in for a challenge to the leadership from other Conservatives, who would want to present a new programme, with exit from the EU top on the list.
This would probably lead to an end of the Coalition, and to a G.E.
The sooner the better, I say