howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
Well its poor news for Labour to be behind in the polls at this stage. Two years into a coalition government which is loathed in some quarters, but by some miracle and despite all hardships, has hit a bounce with the wider population.
The Veto situation( or non veto depending on how you look at it, if all the other guys move ahead without you is it a veto?) has given Cameron a rocket fuelled boost in the polls. Nothing it seems the population likes more than giving 'one' to the French and the Germans. It has nothing to do with whether Camerons stance was right or wrong but the nation just loved sticking two fingers up to the EU.
As the article says, if bumbling but lovable Boris wins the mayoral race again in London, then we have a Tory whitewash ( or should that be Bluewash) right across the Southeast, and with their tails up! Ive seen former mayor Ken Livingstone several times recently on TV trying to breath some life into his aching campaign for his mayoral comeback, but he looks old. He looks like a guy from the past.Yesterday's man. That's fatal in politics, the thing is to recognise when this happens and join the ranks of old boys like Michael Heseltine and Paddy Pantsdown who spend their advancing years giving patriarchal advice on TV to young political numbskulls.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
more like a blue rince paulb,still theres time yet for labour to catch up.
Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
brian/paulb
and they will
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Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
The impression is the LibDems are moving up the ladder.
They might manage to take a sizable portion of Labour support as people realise that Labour has nothing to offer.
(I mean, they have NOTHING to offer!)
UKIP seem to be inexistent, at least in Dover anyway. Just gave up the spirit and gone!
The Conservatives must surely know by now that only an anti-EU campaign will win them support, possibly from the ever-increasing Party of Apathy which does not vote out of total disgust towards unreliable and bent political promises on the part of the big parties.
Many from the Apathy Party might just give the Tories a won-time vote on an anti-EU card, knowing it could only get better not worse.
A lot depends now on Dave Cameron: will he dither about in limbo during 2012 and dance the silly-dance of EU crisis summits, or will he just go for a referendum and end the misery?
If you don't play your trump card when you know you can win, it will turn sour.
UKIP had a trump card a few months back, when Dave imposed the 3-line party whip against an EU referendum.
That was the moment to get up and proclaim to be the party of freedom and democracy, the time to give the word to dynamic and enthusiastic people and let them show their face in public and enjoy their 15 minutes of oratorium to the crowds.
What did they do? Just slept. But then we all know that if Mohamed doesn't go to the Mountain, the Mountain won't go to Mohamed either.
Since then, Dave with his veto turned the tables round, and was proclaimed a Winston Churchil on the Sun front page. He took the trump card.
The man still has the capacity and clout to be acclaimed hero of Britain.
But if he goes back to the usual dithering and double-measured "save the EU" nonsense, he wil of-course lose the winning ace, which is called: "out of the EU now!".
If he hangs around in limbo, and carries on introducing more pip-sqeezing measures to penalise the unemployed, the hard-working and the vulnerable, while the EU merry-go-round still continues to plague Britain, then Dave's support will of-course fall like a pack of cards.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
have to disagree with your appraisal of the parties alex.
the yellows will not gain any votes from the reds in the foreseeable future however bad the latter are.
i think you are being unfair on your own party, dave stole the show in the recent treaty negotiations, great tabloid stuff.
a couple of more scoops like that will render ukip redundant.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
Howard: the Tories, Labour and the Libs have unlimited access to the tabloids, and that's what I said long ago to the UKIP committee, that by doing nothing, UKIP will get nowhere.
Without access to the press worth mentioning, the only way forward was to invest time and effort in trying to attract people's attention locally, going out and about and holding speeches to small - and gradually larger - crowds.
And allowing common people to say their word, to get their tuppence worth of two phrases over to a gathered group, and talking with each other.
Once a committee, or even the party at national level, does away with any attempt of open dialogue, it becomes an apparatnik society, where a few have the say (or one person at local level) and the others are left out in the cold.
But when one person allocates to themselves the sole right of speech, they have to do a damn good job and always be at it, in order to take the show forward.
As soon as they fall asleep, there's no-one else to do the job, is there?
It's a bit like when Paul B suggested a few months back, that UKIP should just go for one seat at the next G E, with Nigel Farage as candidate.
OK, but then why should all the others bother at all? If it's a one man show, then leave it to one man to do it himslef.
Not that Nigel suggested that, but perhaps he should have been more interested in how the local branches are doing, encouraging members who want to do something and allowing them to take an initiative.
So all we have left is to hope that the Government does the right thing and to cheer them on when they do something right.
But if Dave and Osborne continue targetting the financially vulnerable, and do nothing to stop unemployment reigning supreme, and if they allow for a situation to continue in which more people in Britain are in debt and more people are on antidepressant drugs owing to financial problems and lack of hope in the future, then the Government will certainly lose credibility.
As said, if 2012 is to be a year of sheer desparation and of continued EU crisis problems, and the usual nonsense about "not being allowed a referendum on the EU", then there will be a major collapse in credibility towards the parties.
One last word: let's not forget that the 100% opinion polls are false, FALSE, because they only give the results of answers from people who said they would vote for a party.
These opinion polls do not bring up the results in percentage terms of those who would NOT vote.
So Labour's 38%, for example, is pie in the sky. The actual percentage of the electorate who'd vote Labour is much lower. Likewise can be said of all the other parties.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
oh heck alex is in a tizwas.
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
I thnk i have predicted before but will do so again.
the lib dems having sold there soul wont be forgiven and what we will see is the lib dems losing a major amount of the few seats they they hold
also clegg has a good chance of losing his seat.
the tories also will lose lots of seats due to people not trusting dave as the king of u turns
then labour not able to grasp the need to regain support will gain some.
ukip is like has been said seen as a one policy, one man party so they wont make any breakthroughs.
so we will be left with no party having overall control.
labour being the largest by a few seats
there will be lots of talks between parties desperate to cling on to number 10
probably in the interest of the party rather than the country.
it will be the most unstable 5 years.
parties will fall out.
on the tories front;
dave has to please his party faithful and be seen to them as anti the eu
he has aso to please his lap dog cleggy who is pro the eu which is where the big splits are already appearing which will see the end of the cobbled together govt.
on the lib dems front;
although the lib dems have got a lot of gains out of the tories and been given far to much time and space
but they will not be forgiven for selling out on so many issues
and so many people saw it ,and on thre doorstep people are up in arms over them just waiting for the chance to vote them out of office
On the UKIP front;
Mr farage has always been since one that pushing himself rather than the ukip party forward.
they are also seen as a one policy one man party.
unlikely to make any breakthroughs
on the labour front;
labour has to decide as to which direction it wants to go
no longer can it afford to just be critical of dave(as much as its easy to do so)
they need to start laying out plans for the future, but that said even the tories stayed quiet on that front right up to the last general election.
so i think labour and ed are learning
ed needs to decide does he take dave on in middle england like blair did?
blair although im no fan of his knew what he had to do to get into number 10 and nothing got in his way
ed to needs to decide where it is he wants to be
he also needs to take the membership/country with him
that will be a big ask of ed but is achievable
well theres a snippet of my view
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Guest 716- Registered: 9 Jun 2011
- Posts: 4,010
# 9........Nice one ............gets my vote.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
The Mail published end of December 2011 an opinion poll of the Guardian which puts the LibDems at 15%, up 1 point on the previous month, and Labour at 35%.
And 23% support Millyband and Balls, with Cameron at 48%.
I simply cannot see where Keith gets his predictions from about a Labour come-back. It will not happen, Keith!
I also can't see the mirroring of your anlysis of the LibDems in the public opinion: 15% does not look like their supporters feel the party sold its soul.
If the trend continues, the LibDems will overtake the popularity of the 2 Ronnies, sorry the 2 Eds, who after the Blair era of New Labour simply have not been able to impress an identity on Labour.
Blair was to all effect a dictator, many call him B-liar, and he utterly destroyed Labour's one-time reputaion of the early 1900s, when it was supposed to be a Socialist party of the working people.
Blair went in for big-time capitalism, sacrificd the working class (except the public sector), and Labour's mess of the economy has left this Country traumatised with deep scars.
The show run by the 2 Eds would be worthy of a pantomime series, and the vast majority of people give them no credibility.
If Dave understands not to do to the Tory party what Blair did to Labour, and not to put all bets on big-time banking and private-sector exploitation, and stops penalising the poorer sector of the population, and drastically combats unemployment, he stands a chance.
However, I just cannot see the electorate reverting back to old New Labour, no matter what show the 2 Eds put up.
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
ALEXANDER;
It's always best to read my posts before making such comments, let me try to explain again to help you.
At no point did i state labour would do well(i said all the parties would do badly and apathy would be the winner)
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS