The EU dilemma......

11 May 2013

There will be a referendum our EU membership, that is certain and it will not be in the too distant future.

When it is held we, Britain that is, must win and exit the EU.

Cameron’s problem is that his credibility for a manifesto referendum pledge is zero after what happened in 2010. This is a little unfair on him, of course, given how the ground shifted beneath his feet just before and after the election.

Conservative MPs therefore want more than a mere manifesto pledge before the election, quite rightly so.

The real worry though, is this.

The referendum, when it comes, will be bloody. You can be certain a well funded campaign by the pro-EU side will use every scare tactic under the sun to intimidate people into voting their way. They will be helped by the BBC enormously who will be only too keen to highlight every scare story and will seek to paint the anti-EU side as wild crazy extremists.

The problem is that scaring people, appealing to base emotions, is a lot easier in a campaign than using a logical fact based argument.

If the lies and scare stories win then this country will be locked into that corrupt organisation forever. There will not be any second chances to free this country from the EU oppressor.

Therefore we must win and to do so we must minimise the fears of the unknown by offering a new positive vision of Britain outside the EU and not a simple leap into the dark. This is where renegotiation comes in. A new negotiated settlement, that reduces the EU’s relationship with the UK to that of a mere trading block, is what we need. Nothing less than that will do.

Cameron is right to want a renegotiation first.

Those who say the EU will refuse to negotiate are wrong.

If they are right then Cameron will have no choice other than to back a vote to leave the EU and that must be the message to the EU and the nation.

In the meantime Cameron has to get re-elected with an overall majority and a firm commitment to a referendum after a negotiation. No other result will deliver freedom for the UK. That is the real challenge and the Conservative backbenchers must remember this.

Brian Dixon wrote:
not in my life time,but if there is I would vote to stay in.but I can see the government welching on the referendum whatever the result.
Guest 655 wrote:
A Conservative Government would not do so, it would be forced by its backbenchers into it. You have to realise the sheer strength of feeling there is against the EU. This has been building up and up over the years and is not stoppable. An influx of new Conservative MPs will be even more anti-EU than now.
howard mcsweeney1 wrote:
last i heard dave was talking about a referendum in 2017, in other words he hopes it will be forgotten about by then.

the chances of him being either prime minister or leader of the opposition until then are also remote.
Guest 710 wrote:
There will be no such referendum.

"more than a mere manifesto pledge"

And what might that be? Presumably a set date and the question finalised, pre election.
Time is tight, the first stage of the present three-stage inquiry into how miffed/discountenanced the UK is by an EU (itself developed by Conservative after Conservative administration) will not report until this summer. Its current neutral stance will, in all probability, be realigned, and downright skewed, to suit the palate of the imagined cohort of anti-EU PPCs that are supposed to out-UKIP UKIP and stride to victory at the next election. This alone may well prove to be the first stumbling-block, self imposed upon this self selected path.
...and then there is UKIP...
Brian Dixon wrote:
a u turn by government proxy,when will this government or the last learn that you need to fully in or fully out,and not sitting on the fence.
Guest 696 wrote:
Barry, I simply don't believe the Tory party, they won't hold a referendum on EU membership.
They are in favour of EU membership. They want the EU to expand.
They haven't got the guts to hold an EU referendum either.
They'd push it out over the years into the distant future and campaign to remain in the EU.
I'm surprised they haven't introduced Esperanto as the new official language.

It's like their promises of localism, it never happened!
I don't believe what they say.
One should use a mirror to read Government policies, preferably a rear-view mirror of a car doing a U-turn.

I'm not a member of UKIP for reasons of Faith, but UKIP will have surpassed the Conservatives and LibDems before 2015.
I'm treating UKIP as the future political party in Government and am looking forward to a constructive dialogue with them.

Unless, of-course, the United Kingdom breaks up before then, considering that the Cabinet does not know how to represent and uphold British unity and is "all things EU".
Brian Dixon wrote:
a fedral republic would be nice alex,we could get rid of the monarchy by exporting them to America at a price,comadeer there land,and stick most of there dosh into the tax mans coffers.
Guest 683 wrote:
"The problem is that scaring people, appealing to base emotions, is a lot easier in a campaign than using a logical fact based argument".
As proven by language such as: "scare tactic", "intimidate people into voting their way"; "corrupt organisation"; "EU oppressor".
You couldn't make it up!!
Brian Dixon wrote:
the currant bun,the tory mouth piece dosent help much by printing scare storys either.
Guest 655 wrote:
Mark - the EU is corrupt, it is an oppressor, EU fanatics do use scare tactics to intimidate people into voting their way and if they have the nerve not to bend a knee and vote the way the EU elite say they have to vote again until they do. The EU has been built on lies and deceit. No I could not make it up.

We have seen only last week utterly absurd claims or 'dire consequences' of EU withdrawal. Total nonsense of course but that big lie was a mere hint of what is to follow.