1 March 2013It has been a mystery why, with GDP falling, unemployment has also fallen.
The rise in employment since 2010 is a success story for the coalition. Some put it down to an increase in part-time work and that is true, except that there has not really been much of a change in the average hours worked despite less overtime, 32 hours p.w. in 2008 and 31.9 now (source: ONS - via The Spectator).
Below: A recent Coffee House graph showing the rise in employment...
I have also identified in my blog previously how the data used to compile the GDP figures is distorted by public sector spending.
Both of these things are factors but there is one other, a very important one for the future of the UK economy.
A massive rise in business start-ups.
Over 970,000 new company registrations in 2 years. There has been a 10% increase in the number of businesses in the UK since the start of the crisis, up from 3.8m to 4.2m (source ONS - via The Spectator) Most of these businesses will be operating at below the VAT threshold and other measurement thresholds, their economic activity simply will not feature in the GDP figures as a result.
Some of these businesses will fail. Some will carry on and will struggle. Some will do well and prosper. Others will become tomorrows FTSE companies and even, one day, multi-national giants...
It is these businesses and other small businesses that have the greatest potential for growth and the greatest potential to increase employment opportunities re-building our economy.
They need to be given the best possible chance to breathe, to survive and to prosper.
These are the businesses that would most be helped by supply-side reforms and tax cuts. These businesses are our future.
This is where Osborne must be bold and act. I have said it before and I say it again, he must tell the LibDems to take a running jump if they keep blocking these essential reforms.
"These are the businesses that would most be helped by supply-side reforms and tax cuts. These businesses are our future."
This though, is hokum*.
By far the best model to follow is that of The Bank of Dave, community banking. As widely practiced in the more prosperous parts of the world.
The push to continue placing trust in the mega-finance sector suits only those unscathed by the recent damage such businesses have wrought upon us. Small IS beautiful.
*
"ho·kum (h k m) n. 1. Something apparently impressive or legitimate but actually untrue or insincere;
nonsense. 2. A stock technique for eliciting a desired response ..."
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/hokum