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    At the start of the year it seemed certain that the blues were heading for an outright majority next May, since then the inexorable rise of UKIP has taken votes from both of the major parties.

    This high profile defection is a body blow for Dave with the chance of more jumping ship. Another cobbled together coalition is on the cards but who will it be? Lord Cashrich's polls shows the reds ahead in key marginals meaning that there is a strong possibility that Red Ed and Nigel Farage would have to form an unlikely alliance.

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